Establishing additive manufacturing as a truly sustainable production method inevitably requires powering the 3D printers of the future. Small polymer systems require the least amount of electricity, but farms of thousands of machines, larger PBF systems, and especially metal systems do and will require a lot of energy to operate. 3D printing can promote distributed manufacturing, which means that the reliability of products in transportation will be reduced, so the main challenge to make AM more sustainable is to use clean energy to power 3D printers.
Unfortunately, there is no truly clean energy today. Even renewable energy sources often require fossil fuels to function, or are accompanied by practices that may cause damage to the environment, such as the mining of rare earth minerals for battery or dam construction. On the other hand, if appropriate measures are taken, even the “dirty” fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas can be extracted in a more sustainable manner and burned cleaner. Nuclear fuel is the most terrifying of all fuels. In the long run, it may actually be the cleanest, especially if the fourth-generation fast neutron reactor, which is now in the final stage of development, can fulfill its promise of rapid decay of nuclear waste. The bottom line is that there is no single solution, and we must advance the best option for all these technologies—while gradually reducing consumption and waste—is to obtain a sustainable energy mix that powers our world and our manufacturing. AM can play an important role in this situation, but only if the final reward can justify the necessary investment.
As a leading and trusted provider of media and insights for the international additive manufacturing industry, we ask ourselves: How much revenue can be generated by using additive manufacturing in the future energy production mix? This is the question we will try to answer here.
Additive manufacturing has been applied in different sectors of the power industry, including building prototypes and mainstream production, thereby simplifying processes and improving operational efficiency. AM can produce components with complex geometries, consume less raw materials, generate less waste, and reduce energy consumption and shorten time to market.
Under the pressure of the power industry, manufacturers are turning to additive manufacturing to seek lower cost and shorter time solutions. In the early days of entering the power industry, 3D printing has achieved considerable success, and the power industry and technology companies have established mutually beneficial alliances.
When analyzing the power generation field and the possible impact of additive manufacturing on it, some generalizations can be made about energy equipment. One, and perhaps the most obvious in the picture below, is that additive manufacturing in renewable energy power generation will surpass all other areas and be driven by solar energy. Please note that this prediction is highly dependent on the actual use of 3D printing technology in the production of photovoltaics and solar cells. These applications are still mainly in the experimental stage today.
However, additive manufacturing will also be used to produce many other solar power generation equipment, including spare parts. As the demand for equipment is much greater than other energy sources (solar energy requires the construction of many very large power plants around the world and is frequently updated), we now expect that the revenue from AM applications in solar power generation equipment will exceed that of oil and natural gas by the end of the decade Manufacturing revenue. If we consider all renewable energy power generation equipment together, this transition will happen even faster-between 2024 and 2026.
Since raw energy-the sun, wind, or the heat of the earth-is free, more investment can and will need to be made to produce infrastructure to use these energy sources. On the other hand, due to the general decline in the demand for fossil fuels, oil and natural gas may mainly use additive manufacturing to reduce costs and simplify infrastructure investment. This has led to a more stable growth curve of AM revenue in this segment.
Nuclear power generation is also expected to become a big adopter of AM, but the construction of nuclear power plants will take many years. In addition, so many new factories will not be built, because a single factory can produce a lot of energy in many years, thereby reducing overall parts demand. Nevertheless, in the entire addressable market, the impact of additive manufacturing in nuclear reactor components is expected to be significant.
In order to evaluate the impact of additive manufacturing on these different power generation areas, we analyzed overall forecasts of equipment production provided by several specialized sources. We compared these figures with a basic assumption that by 2030, AM can grow to account for 1% to 2% of any manufacturing sector.
This percentage change is defined by 3dpbm's understanding of using AM for each market segment. The derived values are then used to evaluate investments in three key areas of additive manufacturing: hardware (designed as the cost of a dedicated machine or the equivalent income of machine time), materials (designed as the material used to produce additively manufactured parts) And parts and services (all parts designed to be produced internally by power companies or outsourced to 3D printing service providers and Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers).
The resulting figures are estimated forecasts designed to provide an order of magnitude for all revenue related to additive manufacturing in the power generation industry over the next decade.
Overall, we expect that AM's annual revenue will reach US$99.9 billion by 2030, starting from approximately US$5 billion in 2019. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 31% for AM, of which the material segment has the fastest growth rate (41%). By the end of the forecast period, parts and services will generate the largest revenue among the three sub-segments. However, in the first part of the forecast, the hardware is more relevant because the necessary initial capital expenditure is used to launch AM applications in the energy sector.
By 2030, the total potential market (TAM) of energy power generation equipment is expected to reach US$671 billion. The forecast is based on data and forecasts from multiple different sources in each energy sector. These sources and the TAM of each energy generation section will be analyzed in more detail in the following sections. The total additive manufacturing penetration rate in the total addressable market (TAM) is expected to be 1.4%.
The forecast is based on an analysis of the total potential market for oil and gas equipment (including downstream, midstream, upstream, and power generation components). According to data from Allied Market Research, we now expect the market to grow to US$159 billion in 2030. AM penetration The rate is expected to be about 1.9%.
The World Economic Forum estimates that AM can ultimately save oil and gas companies up to $30 billion in cost and time. The application of additive manufacturing technology in the upstream and midstream oil and gas value chains has great potential value.
The main benefits of introducing AM hardware include tool-free manufacturing, increased geometric freedom in part design, no or fewer sub-components, no physical inventory (digital warehousing), fast parts availability (including locations in remote areas), and reduced downtime time.
As the integrated AM technology is more capable in terms of size and speed, significant progress has been made in the integrated additive manufacturing DED process (directed energy deposition), which can ensure rapid production speed through high deposition rates and integrated high automation. Hybrid (addition, measurement/check, subtraction) system. The main companies committed to introducing AM in the oil and gas sector are Siemens, General Electric, and Baker Hughes, and are supported by consulting and standard developers such as DNL GL, Lloyd and Berenshot.
Although the application of additive manufacturing in oil and gas covers the entire workflow from exploration to energy production, the last area has witnessed some of the most important developments in additive manufacturing. In 2018, Siemens produced the first batch of 3D printed metal replacement parts for industrial steam turbines, reducing the production cycle of these parts by 40%.
In 2017, Siemens completed its first full-load engine test of a gas turbine blade produced entirely using additive manufacturing technology. The company is developing new additive manufacturing solutions not only for turbine blades, but also for turbine blades, combustor nozzles and radial impellers. GE also believes that 3D printing is a disruptor in the energy industry. As of 2018, it has shipped 9,000 3D printed gas turbine components, including 3D printed fuel nozzles for the company's HA-class gas turbines. The nozzle helped the company increase the efficiency of the turbine to 64%, and is now working to achieve a higher efficiency of 65%.
After separating from General Electric, Baker Hughes announced that it will further expand the use of additive manufacturing to make oil and natural gas energy production more sustainable as part of a cleaner energy portfolio. The Baker Hughes Additives Center of Excellence in Florence and the TPS (Turbo Machinery and Process Solutions) production facility in Taramona (Northern Italy) and the drilling rig and downhole tool production facility in Northern Italy have developed a variety of additive manufacturing. Solutions for many years. Germany and Baker Hughes headquarters in Houston, Texas.
To date, the company has produced more than 25,000 additive components and certified more than 450 individual components. This growth rate is very fast. In 2019, Baker Hughes passed as many AM parts in one year as in previous years.
As Michael Moore's recent documentary "Planet of the Humans" reveals—although it may be a bit exaggerated—renewable power generation is not without its flaws. First, the generation of renewable energy requires substantial investment in equipment manufacturing: solar mirrors, batteries, batteries, wind turbines and dams. Therefore, like any manufacturing-intensive market segment, it can benefit from additive manufacturing because it is a more efficient, waste-reducing and sustainable process.
By 2030, the total revenue of additive manufacturing of all renewable energy power generation equipment is expected to grow to 5.72 billion U.S. dollars per year, again mainly driven by application and service revenue. This results in a penetration rate of 1.26% for TAM, which is estimated to be worth US$452.4 billion per year by 2030. Solar power is expected to be the main part of equipment-related revenue, followed by wind energy and hydro/geothermal energy (these have been combined into one segment).
If renewable energy truly provides a viable and widely adopted energy source, batteries need to become more efficient, and-since we are talking about sustainability-rely on cleaner production methods and materials. Most batteries today rely on rare earth metals. Unlike what the name implies, rare earth metals are not rare at all. On the contrary, they are very scarce, which means that a large amount of earth needs to be mined and dissolved using highly polluting processes to obtain them. Research teams around the world are using 3D printing technology to create complex internal structures for batteries to increase capacity and flexibility in shape and size.
A team at Harvard University is developing a miniature version of a lithium-ion battery using 3D printing technology. Micro batteries are made by precisely printing different compound layers (Li4Ti5O12 or LTO and LiFePO4 or LFP) as anodes and cathodes respectively, enabling the development of self-powered small electronic products, robots, medical implants, etc. Researchers from IBM and ETH Zurich used 3D printing to create the first liquid battery called a "redox flow" battery. This battery can generate energy and cooling at the same time. The team used 3D printing to create a microchannel system to provide electrolyte for the battery. The system minimizes the need for pumping power and eliminates internal high temperatures.
The most relevant development in the use of 3D printing to improve battery sustainability is TU Graz from Austria, which makes it easier to manufacture permanent magnets for small electronic components. Supermagnets manufactured using a laser-based 3D printing process can be used to power electric motors and sensors, wind turbines, and magnetic switching systems. Although they are ubiquitous, they also present certain manufacturing challenges. That is, permanent magnets are usually produced using sintering or injection molding, which limits their size and geometry. AM can provide solutions.
In the beginning, the researchers focused on 3D printing neodymium (NdFeB), a rare earth metal used in many strong permanent magnets, such as those used in computers and smartphones. Now, team member Arneitz-Doctor. Students at TU Graz are exploring the possibility of 3D printing other types of magnets, such as iron and cobalt magnets (Fe-Co). In the end, these magnets can provide a more ecological alternative than NdFeB, which, like rare earth metals, is resource-intensive and challenging to recycle. The researchers also pointed out that in terms of performance, rare earth metals tend to lose their magnetism at high temperatures, while iron-cobalt alloys can still maintain magnetism at temperatures as high as 400 degrees Celsius.
Although the technical feasibility of solar cells has been confirmed some time ago, the capacity factor (CF) is still very low, with an average of about 17% in the best case. The low CF of solar panels makes it difficult for large-scale solar power plants to achieve economies of scale, so subsidies are required to maintain continuous operation for a period of time. In this regard, 3D printing can be a game changer because it is now used to make solar panels.
Although the technology is still in its infancy, MIT researchers claim that compared with traditional solar panels, the application of additive technology in solar panels can reduce manufacturing costs by 50% and increase efficiency by 20%. The 3D printed solar panels are lightweight, ultra-thin solar strips that can be easily transported to any place, reducing the risk of damage.
In Australia, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) uses industrial 3D printers to print solar cell rolls in the form of A3 paper, which can be used on windows and building surfaces and as high-efficiency solar panels. Scientists have developed a photovoltaic ink for flexible plastic strips. In another example, the Australian Solar Thermal Research Project (ASTRI) and CSIRO have developed a concentrated solar power plant (CSP) in which the entire solar field is 3D printed.
Another project started in 2013 but is still in its infancy, combining materials science and advanced geometry. The start-up company T3DP is studying a new generation of 3D printed solar cells that can more than double the conversion efficiency of today's flat solar panels, making 3D printed solar a truly viable and cost-effective solution. From the perspective of 3D printing, the solution proposed by T3DP is based on the patented volumetric 3D printing process, which utilizes the research conducted by Stanford University researchers on perovskite materials for solar cells.
Although the mass production of solar mirrors, photovoltaics, or power batteries through 3D printing is still a few years away, AM has several other uses in solar power generation equipment (such as in any complex assembly). These include battery production (described in more detail below), turbine parts, heat exchangers, and many replacement parts, including complex sensors, housings, actuators, panel connectors, connectors, and positioners.
We expect the total penetration rate of AM to reach 1.6% of the total potential market for solar equipment. By 2025, the annual revenue of this segment is expected to reach US$188 billion, and we expect it to reach US$339 billion by 2030. In the first half of the forecast, the growth is related to the increasing gradual adoption of traditional polymers and metal AM for replacement and final parts. Solar power plant equipment.
This is expected to peak in 2024 and decline in 2025. It is expected that in the second half of the forecast period, there will be more use of additive manufacturing in actual solar cell production, which will generate greater revenue. Therefore, the total amount of additive manufacturing in the total addressable market (TAM) is expected to reach US$3.4 billion per year, with the vast majority of which will come from the value and revenue associated with the production of final parts.
Development and innovation through materials and manufacturing technologies are critical to the prosperity of the wind energy industry and to continue to increase its annual energy production. In the future, AM can realize the on-site manufacturing of turbine components, which are designed to meet the unique needs of specific location resources. In addition, AM provides a tool to make up for the supply and demand of wind turbine spare parts of the discontinued model, and the manufacturer will have a limited number to meet the maintenance needs. Mold and pattern production is another key and proven area of 3D printing in wind power equipment. Pattern production is one of the most time-consuming and labor-intensive processes in wind blade manufacturing, and 3D printing can help save these critical resources.
In the wind energy industry, current and R&D-level AM technologies may affect the prototyping and manufacturing costs of wind energy tools and components. According to a study published by ORNL, considering the continuous pace of AM technology advancement, it is economically feasible to use AM for wind module applications, including direct printing blade molds that have been studied in depth to understand its potential and cost ; Functionalized nacelle cover; permanent magnets; and light-weight, high-efficiency heat exchangers.
In the future, additive manufacturing technology can realize the on-site manufacturing of turbine components and the production of on-site optimized components that are suitable for unique wind energy and grid resources in specific locations. With the expected maturity of new technologies, such as large-format additive manufacturing (LFAM), high-volume wide-format and high-volume additive manufacturing (WHAM), and large metal AM machines, one day it may affect the paradigm of direct printing to shift various wind turbine components.
A key potential benefit is that large wind blades do not have to be transported over long distances—especially when they cannot be transported on highways. On the contrary, a 3D printer can operate and "print" the blades on site, thereby saving transportation costs. This will also reduce the mold manufacturing time by 35%, and it is possible to combine different materials in different areas of the blade.
This means that not only large-format polymer and metal additive manufacturing technology can be implemented, but also cement technology can be implemented. Engineers at Purdue University are working on a way to make wind turbine components from 3D printed concrete, which is a cheaper material that can also float components from onshore factories to the site.
Researchers are working with RCAM Technologies, a start-up company that aims to develop concrete additive manufacturing for onshore and offshore wind energy technologies, including wind turbine towers and anchors. By eliminating the need for molds, RCAM's concrete additive manufacturing process can reduce the capital cost of offshore substructures and towers by up to 80% compared with traditional methods. It uses low-cost areas to purchase concrete without the need for expensive templates. And increase the production speed to 20 times.
According to the data provided by Markets and Markets, we predict that by 2030, the total addressable market (TAM) of AM in the production of wind energy equipment will reach US$44 billion. By 2030, revenue will generate US$890 million per year, which reflects a penetration rate of 2.02% (higher than other renewable energy sectors, but the overall market size is smaller).
It should be noted that, like all other market segments described here, this figure also includes revenue related to AM hardware, which in wind energy is represented by high-cost systems used to produce very large molds and final parts.
The possible uses of 3D printing in geothermal and hydroelectric power generation are similar to the current uses in the oil and gas industry, because these parts are related to the generation of energy from the earth's resources. Geothermal additive manufacturing applications may be similar to downhole and drilling additive manufacturing applications used for downstream oil procurement. A major advantage of AM is that it can even bring parts manufacturing to remote areas where geothermal power generation is a viable option.
Hydroelectric power plants are used as turbine components and heat exchangers in hydroelectric power plants. These components are similar to those already in the production of gas turbine components by Siemens and Baker Hughes. One possible sustainable development of hydropower using AM is ultra-micro hydropower. Here, additive manufacturing can play a role in prototyping and final production.
In rivers, streams, and man-made channels, especially at very low heads below 10 feet, there is a large amount of available energy, but it is usually not used. Unfortunately, this resource is distributed in thousands of locations, each with different heads, flows, and site conditions. An affordable technical solution that allows widespread utilization of this clean, renewable energy asset is a flexible integrated turbine/generator system based on 3D printed turbines and pipe ducts, which are also 3D printed, or With 3D printing plug-in installed on general equipment. frame. The Minneapolis startup Verterra proposed an interesting concept for this as early as 2016: its water turbine system called Volturnus operates based on a horizontal design, which can deflect rocks, plants and logs while generating energy. River wreckage. The turbines are deployed in groups of five called V-Pods, located in a body of water flowing below the surface, subtly and silently capturing enough energy from the water for use by up to 40 households. The process of designing the patented turbine design relies heavily on 3D printing technology. Future production models may also integrate 3D printed parts on site.
Taking into account the current adoption rate and future potential, by 2030, the annual revenue of additive manufacturing in the geothermal and hydropower field may grow to 1.44 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for about 1.6% of the total target market. We expect this market to reach 68 billion. USD (based on data provided by Transparent Market Research).
Probably (and indeed) the most popular area for AM adoption is the civilian nuclear industry. Since Siemens successfully installed a 3D printed part at the Krško nuclear power plant in Slovenia-a metal impeller with a diameter of 108 millimeters (mm) for fire pumps, the new material manufacturing application for the nuclear power plant has been under development. With the right materials, including ceramics and refractory metals, additive manufacturing can be used for obsolete parts that are no longer available to keep old power plants running. Recently, radiation shielding materials such as boron carbide have been used as powder for spraying adhesives on the ExOne system. Earlier this year, Swedish 3D printing companies Additive Composite and Add North 3D released a new type of boron carbide composite filament suitable for radiation shielding applications in the nuclear industry.
In 2016, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced that GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH) was selected to lead a $2 million additive manufacturing research project, so advanced research on the use of 3D printed nuclear reactor replacement parts and spare parts has officially begun. The project is part of an investment of more than 80 million U.S. dollars in advanced nuclear technology.
GEH led the project by producing sample replacement parts for nuclear power plants. The samples were 3D printed in metal at the GE Power Advanced Manufacturing Works plant in Greenville, South Carolina, and then shipped to the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Once irradiated in INL's advanced test reactor, the sample is tested and compared with the analysis performed by GEH on unirradiated materials. GEH is now using these results to support the deployment of 3D printed parts for fuel, service, and new factory applications.
In February 2018, Rosatom, the Russian state-owned nuclear power company, established a company to develop additive manufacturing technology. It has developed a pre-production prototype of the Gen II 3D printer for metal and composite AM components in nuclear power generation activities.
Recently, Westinghouse Electric installed 3D printed components into commercial nuclear reactors during the spring refueling shutdown of Exelon's Byron 1 nuclear power plant. As part of its advanced manufacturing products, Westinghouse operates powder bed molten metal AM and hot wire laser welding (HWLW). Research and development are also underway to determine more applications of 3D printing in the nuclear industry.
One of them is the Transformation Challenge Reactor (TCR) Demonstration Program supported by the US Department of Energy's Office of Nuclear Energy, which is an unprecedented method of developing 3D printed reactor cores by 2023. As part of the deployment of 3D printed nuclear reactors, the plan will create a digital platform that will help transfer technology to the industry for rapid adoption of additive manufacturing nuclear energy technology. Through the TCR program, ORNL is seeking to address a disturbing trend: Although nuclear power plants provide nearly 20% of the electricity in the United States, according to the current license expiration date, more than half of the reactors in the United States will be decommissioned within 20 years.
The nuclear industry is now developing at a very fast pace-huge changes have taken place from the past-especially at the front end of the SMR (Small Modular Reactor), which is a reduced version of the nuclear reactor, including the current and Generation IV (fast neutrons) technology. As recently as May 15, the U.S. Department of Energy provided grants to GE Research and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) for research projects that use artificial intelligence and advanced modeling and control to develop digital twin technology for advanced nuclear reactors. The research project will use the digital twin of the company's BWRX-300 small modular reactor as a reference design.
Digital twin technology can perfectly reproduce the virtual simulation of complex engineering structures and is a key element of the manufacturing digital strategy, including 3D printing for digital warehousing and spare parts. In the total addressable market for nuclear power generation equipment (including power plants and ongoing research projects), the market for 3D printed parts in nuclear power equipment may grow to US$1.23 billion, and we expect to reach US$59 billion by 2030, based on Data provided by Allied Market Research. This means that TAM is about 2.08%. The compound annual growth rate of additive manufacturing in the application of nuclear energy equipment is expected to be 27%. Other parts are expected to grow faster, but nuclear energy certainly requires additional safety guidelines.
This article first appeared on 3dpbm's AM Focus 2020 sustainability e-book
This market research by 3dpbm Research provides an in-depth analysis and forecast of the ceramic additive market.
Your email address will not be published.
Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time you comment.
I have read and accept the privacy policy. *
I have read and accept the privacy policy. *
I have read and accept the privacy policy. *
We use cookies to provide you with the best online experience. I agree that you accept the use of cookies in accordance with our cookie policy.
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mainly in the form of cookies. Control your personal cookie service here.
Join industry leaders and get the latest insights on what AM really matters!
This information will never be shared with the 3rd party
I have read and accept the privacy policy. *